(Editor’s note: This is part of of a two-part article about the Civil Grand Jury’s report on sea level rise. Part 2 will appear in early December.)
Can a small coastside city that started with a Gold Rush only 165 years ago, and (1) courageously rebuilt following a horrendous earthquake and fire in 1906 and (2) another major quake in 1989, and (3) in this century is undergoing a feckless, reckless complete transformation… also withstand relentlessly rising waters?
Sounds like a case for the fearless 2013-2014 Civil Grand Jury. (The Civil Grand Jury is a government oversight panel of volunteers who serve for one year, making findings and recommendations resulting from its investigations.)
The Grand Jury did undertake a study of inexorable sea level rise and its expected impact on San Francisco and San Francisco Bay. The members named their report: “Rising Sea Levels…At Our Doorstep.”
The issue was stated as “How and where will rising sea levels most likely affect the City of San Francisco and what is the City doing to address the issue.”
THE CITY’S WATERY LOCATION
Their study begins with Background:
“The Gold Rush left San Francisco Bay one-third its original size. The remaining two-thirds of the Bay was filled to increase its height to just above sea level. This fill now supports our port buildings, piers, and residences.
“Underground streams flow through a large area of the City, evidenced by their flooding above ground during heavy rainstorms. Mission Bay, a recognized flood plain, is currently a heavily developed area, with several future projects under consideration.
“Sea level rise appears to be happening at an accelerated rate. Climate scientists attribute the acceleration to a number of factors, including thermal expansion and the meltdown of glaciers and West Antarctica ice sheets, all apparently caused by global warming.
“Higher sea levels can result in higher, stronger storm issues that can have a severe impact on coastal areas, including erosion, flooding, contamination of water sources and damage to wastewater treatment plants.”
INEVITABLE CHANGES TO THE BAY
Also cited was: “A study done by the Pacific Institute concludes that no matter what policies are implemented in the future, sea level rise will inevitably change the character of San Francisco Bay.”
Continuing, “This study recommends that future development and protection be governed by sustainability. Sustainability means ‘meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.’ ”
The Jury’s study quoted from the California Coastal Commission’s “Draft Sea Level Rise Policy Guidance” released in October 2013:
“The State is using National Research numbers of potential rise, which are: 1.5″ to 12″ by 2030, 4.5″ to 24″ by 2060, and 16.5″ to 66” by 2100. The State will require the use of these measurements in planning.
“… The report recommends maximizing protection of public access, recreation, and sensitive coastal resources.”
Elsewhere in the report the Jury stated that “A tidal gauge by the Golden Gate Bridge has been measuring sea levels over the past century and indicates a rise of nearly 8 inches over that time.
“It will continue to rise as a thermal expansion of the oceans and an increase in ocean volume as land ice melts and runs off into the ocean.”
BCDC SOUNDED WARNINGS
Jury members noted that the “Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC), formed to oversee bay development, dredging and fill, under the Public Trust Doctrine, has jurisdiction over the open water and marshes of San Francisco Bay.”
BCDC, a state agency, certainly was one of the first respected entities to try to raise government and public awareness of the significance of rising waters.
The Jury report pointed out that “Since the law confers to BCDC jurisdiction over all areas that are subject to tidal action to mean high tides and areas within 100 feet landward of the mean high tide line, BCDC’s jurisdiction will necessarily extend landward as sea level rises.”
BCDC’s estimate of sea level rise of San Francisco Bay was said to be 16 inches by 2050 and 55 inches by 2100.
CRUX OF THE MATTER
“The Jury reviewed numerous public documents that address rising sea levels” and stated its observation that “although there is no question this issue exists, the City has not yet produced a comprehensive plan for adaptation to rising sea levels.
“Neither the City’s Planning Code nor the City’s Building Inspection Code contains any provisions addressing BCDC’s sea level rise projections.
“Neither Code insists that any construction project vulnerable to future shoreline flooding be designed to be resilient to at least the 2050 projection. Nor do they provide a plan to address long-time rising sea level issues for construction projects intended to last beyond 2050.”
But in a roundup statement the Civil Grand Jury said of its investigation, “Much has been discovered to be commended and much to recommend.”
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Part 2 of BCNA’s report on the 2013-2014 Civil Grand Jury’s findings on sea level rise in San Francisco and the Bay will show the Jury’s final recommendations and the required responses of City government.
Copyright © Barbary Coast Neighborhood Association 2014